Nate Erskine-Smith (NES) confirmed last week that he won't be a candidate in the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) leadership race this year, nor run provincially anytime soon (although he hasn't ruled out running municipally in his local ward.)
This is very sad for me because I thought NES represented the best hope for a reformed OLP dedicated squarely to integrity, fixing the corrupt mistakes of the past, and committing to real fixes for the issues afflicting the province.
But unfortunately, the powers-that-be in the OLP who don't see any reasons to change, even after suffering loss of party status and almost a decade in the political wilderness, weren't interested in Nate even having a chance.
They unleashed scruple-free insider and longtime NES critic Milton Chan to hand out ballots to anyone he wanted at the recent local Scarborough Southwest Liberal nomination meeting which turned into a circus, including people allegedly voting multiple times and taking pictures of their ballots as likely proof of payment for their votes. The chaos eventually saw London, Ontario-based pizza franchiser Ahsanul Hafiz eke out a 19-vote victory over NES, 718 to 699. The party immediately rubber-stamped the result, despite the discrepancy of 34 extra votes counted from the voting boxes versus the number of people the party itself detailed had been given ballots.
Nate's appeal of the results fell on deaf ears as the three-member arbitration panel decided blind deference to the powers-that-be was their only mandate and brushed aside all of the shenanigans as just fine.
This is the culture of the Ontario Liberal Party. A culture that has let me down time and time again over the years. There are some decent, progressive people in the party with principles they aren't willing to simply abandon at any time for convenience. But those decent people remain far outnumbered by those who seem happy to merely fill rooms, applaud unconditionally, and smile beside those they perceive to already have power no matter what they stand for.
It's true that NES wasn't the be all and end all. He still had a ways to go to prove he could win beyond his downtown stronghold of Beaches-East York. His hasty decision to run in the Scarborough Southwest OLP nomination race opened himself up to this sabotage, and as we saw his haters were more than happy to do anything to stop him, knowing full well the party would have their sleazy backs.
Alas, I'm getting very tired of this story.
If this is how the Ontario Liberal Party wants to operate, that is their choice. I'll make my future choices about political participation accordingly. But I can tell you I won't be supporting Hafiz in Scarborough Southwest who was happy to commit all kinds of fraud to win his nomination, with the blessing of his party's bigwigs.
I still hate Doug Ford and what his PCs have done or not done to Ontario. It may be that even the OLP, with all of its wishy washy amoralism and inadequate policies, would be preferable to them.
The remaining OLP leadership candidates all bring some good qualities to their candidacies, but fail to inspire me much.
Navdeep Bains is an overly safe insider probably few Ontarians have ever heard of. Despite being in elected federal politics from 2004 to 2011, and from 2015 to 2021 when he served as Industry Minister in Justin Trudeau's cabinet, can many remember anything he's ever said, any speech he's ever given that illustrates his essential leadership qualities? I only remember his evasive and frankly laughable answers in rare committee meetings federally when he was defending against conflicts of interest allegations, or other subdued, milquetoast comments.
His OLP leadership campaign this year personifies that overly safe approach. He's fighting to "renew the Ontario promise," and to promote "prosperity and opportunity" for all Ontarians. In short, he's fighting for a whole lot of nothing. This is probably music to the ears of many OLP folks who don't care much about policy specifics, just where the camera is located so they can stand behind a "winner" and look important.
Bains' caution and general conservatism may be what centrist Ontarians, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area where the OLP needs to win a whole bunch of seats to contend for government, are looking for. His strategy seems to be to wait out Doug Ford, hoping scandals and the sad state of Ontario's economy and social sectors will simply force Ontarians to seek an alternative in 2029. Offering a vague promise about "renewing Ontario's promise" may represent the full ambition of his leadership. In government, I can picture him doing not much of anything to fix these problems, but fixing problems isn't really on his agenda. It's winning and then occupying the seat of power. Would he be better than Doug Ford? I honestly can't say that I have any idea.
Superficially, is it appealing to think that a Sikh man who wears a turban and is generally inoffensive on a surface level, could become premier of Ontario? Sure, that symbolic breakthrough would have its appeal for a brief time. But after that, what kind of government would he run? I have no doubt that Bains is hoping to keep those questions unanswered as long as possible.
The other OLP leadership candidates aren't any better.
Lee Fairclough seems like a decent, hard-working woman. I admire the dedication and tenacity she showed in running for and winning her seat in Doug Ford’s backyard in Etobicoke (although like NES, winning one riding personally doesn’t necessarily mean strong appeal outside of that riding base). Her leadership campaign so far has also been heavy on platitudes and very milquetoast. What does she bring specifically that no one else can bring to the job? What is her brand? It's not yet clear. I also think her brief time in elected politics has left her retail and political skills under-cooked. Her plodding speaking style has improved a bit since last year and she has potential. If she put more substance or personality in her speeches, really fleshing out the "Lee Fairclough" promise, she might present a more appealing option. As things are going, if it's merely a choice based on surface characteristics, I have a sense that Bains will win this easily.
Rob Cerjanec is a mildly good-looking man who is clearly not ready for provincial leadership just yet. I'm glad he eked out a victory over the PCs in Ajax last year, thanks no doubt to some quick and decent organizing and a lot of luck. That doesn't make him qualified to be leader this year. And like the other major candidates, his platform is platitudes, platitudes, platitudes.
I need to listen more to Dylan Marando, another candidate, who used to be a senior policy adviser to the former OLP government at Queen's Park. He seems to be running a decent campaign so far, although it's unclear if he's truly in contention to win this. He may end up getting my first preference vote later this year. But at this point, I have no idea.
Housing advocate Eric Lombardi has made a bit of a splash so far in this race too. Some of his ideas are truly revolutionary for his party. I do admire his willingness to take bold stands on issues including housing and electoral reform. However, I'm starting to worry a bit about some of his fans, including right-wing bro types who most Liberals and liberals would find offensive. The endorsement from yellow journalist Adam Zivo, who's always been willing to ignore facts about the effectiveness of safe drug supplies in order to continually back up his ideological crusade against poor people, not to mention some other scary tech bros, makes me wonder what's really going on with Lombardi's candidacy.
I have met Lombardi personally once or twice. He's not anywhere close to being ready for the party leadership. I'm quite hot and cold about his candidacy. I have a lot more thinking and research to do.
So these are the choices Liberals are left with, now that the party establishment has kibosh-ed NES.
Not much choice, if you ask me.
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