Tuesday, December 30, 2014

My early 2015 federal election prediction

I'm extremely proud that I was able to predict way back in the fall of 2013 that Kathleen Wynne would win re-election with a majority government in Ontario.  Good friends can attest to my accuracy.  At the time, the main elements that would decide the Ontario election were already in place: Kathleen Wynne, an impressive, spirited newcomer leading a scandal-plagued minority government, a mediocre Conservative leader in Tim Hudak who had blown the 2011 election, and a spunky NDP leader in Andrea Horwath who had already mostly turned her back on urban, progressive causes in a bid to win over conservative voters in the ROO (Rest of Ontario.)

My autumn 2013 prediction of an Ontario Liberal majority assumed two important elements coming to pass: 1) Wynne's campaign being run extremely well, taking full advantage of the opportunities presented by the flaws of the opposition, and 2) Tim Hudak continuing to perform badly.  

Hudak did not disappoint.  His atrocious campaign this year - including his, "Let's cut 100,000 jobs to stimulate the economy" promise - couldn't have been worse.  In the end, I overestimated him.  At the same time, Wynne's progressive 2014 budget and subsequent campaign perfectly undercut Horwath's rightward tilt, giving progressive voters in Toronto many reasons to abandon the NDP and elect Liberals.

One day before the Ontario election in June, I was the only person who correctly guessed a "Liberal majority" in Hill and Knowlton's Twitter election result contest.  I even guessed 59 seats, which was the Liberal total on election night (before a recount in Thornhill made it 58.)  I won a $200 gift card of my choice (I picked Cineplex movies and enjoyed dozens of films this year - I'll post later this week my 2014 Favourite films list.)  Once the final result was called, most mainstream commentators called Wynne's Liberal majority "shocking."  But I wasn't shocked. 

I've learned to trust my analysis and instincts and ignore most of the noise that masquerades as political commentary these days.  Some of it can be intelligent and relatively agenda-free, like this piece by Paul Wells laying out the challenges all 3 federal leaders face next year.

But I've generally learned that collectively the "political commentariat" in Canada has zero impact on election results.  It can be dizzying following their day-to-day descriptions of what's allegedly happening on the hustings.  You'll recall the atrocious Toronto Sun cartoon which depicted a viciously beaten Kathleen Wynne after she allegedly got "crushed" by Tim Hudak in the Ontario election debate.  Many commentators including Robin Sears and Warren Kinsella declared Wynne finished after that 90 minutes and began to guess at the size of the Hudak majority.  Meanwhile, the only sensible pollster, Nanos, had produced poll numbers before the debate - Libs 38%, PCs 31%, NDP 24% - which ended up almost completely in line with the final vote totals two and a half weeks later.  The big debate and all that bullshit commentary had zero impact on the results.  

Most of all, I've learned to ignore the many crappy pollsters out there - especially Forum, Ipsos Reid and, just yesterday, Angus Reid.  I only give credence to Nanos nowadays.  While I enjoy following ThreeHundredEight.com and his analysis, averaging out bad poll numbers can still tell us little about the final results.  Eric Grenier too was predicting a Liberal minority government in Ontario based on what pollsters were telling him. 

All this being said, I now look ahead to a federal election in 2015.

If Stephen Harper runs again as Conservative leader (which I think he will), I'm predicting he'll at best be reduced to a minority government. But there is an excellent chance Harper will lose outright to a Liberal minority government.  If Justin Trudeau performs near perfectly and coalesces the anti-Conservative vote behind the Liberals, including in Quebec, he'll win a majority. 

We've already seen the polls change a bit in Harper's favour this fall.  He's been in full re-election mode, doing everything he can to get his numbers up, acting the conservative statesman on the international scene, the tough guy taking on ISIS and standing up to Vladimir Putin, while also stepping up against homegrown terrorists and in favour of working parents.  It's a cunning, toxic caricature that Harper has perfected after years in power.  He's come a long way from his days as head of the National Citizens Coalition.

By re-taking a narrow lead in the polls of late, making the 2015 election a real race, the dynamics of the pre-campaign will change.   Instead of focusing on Justin Trudeau, voters will instead contemplate the question: "Do we really want another four years of Stephen Harper?" 

This is actually good for Trudeau's Liberals, in my mind.  They'll continue to unveil their own compare-and-contrast campaign, focusing on Harper's considerable weak spots, which have been glaring ever since he cleared out the truly talented people from the PMO thanks to the Mike Duffy scandal.   If the Liberals are smart, they'll also soon start describing themselves as the "underdogs" in this federal election, reminding everyone that they are the humbled third party, that they've done their time in the penalty box, that they've learned the hard lessons of defeat and have developed a fresh new team with a clear, progressive vision for the country courtesy of a lot of "hope and hard work." 

TRUDEAU'S SUCCESSES

Trudeau has succeeded on numerous crucial fronts since winning the Liberal leadership in the spring of 2013.  He's managed to replace Tom Mulcair's NDP as the unofficial opposition in the minds of Canadians, despite the fact the Libs have only one third the seats.  Repeated by-election results have confirmed that trend and most of the media now believe only Trudeau's Liberals can knock out Harper's Cons.  And they're right.

One of Trudeau's most senior advisors, Gerald Butts, previously worked wonders for Dalton McGuinty in 2003, helping to design a platform at the time that perfectly spoke to the concerns of Ontarians after 8 years of provincial PC rule.  It was an unabashedly progressive agenda and would set up the themes that would win power for the Ontario Liberals.  Those themes - ensuring quality public education, health care and other public services including infrastructure - continue to resonate and keep the Ontario Liberals in power today.  I'm seeing many echos of that successful strategy in many of Justin Trudeau's pronouncements, including on infrastructure, the middle class, tax fairness and even marijuana.  Trudeau's also talking about banning government advertising that is clearly partisan, which was another major plank in the 2003 Ontario Liberal platform.   And Trudeau lately has been criticizing Harper's penchant for secrecy and centralization of power and control.

Trudeau is setting himself up to be the great antidote to 9 years of Harper rule.   If his platform is convincingly progressive enough, he may be able to win more NDP votes than previously thought. 

Still, Trudeau is just 43.  To many, he will appear green on the hustings.  He may even spit out some uninspiring or worrying nonsense in a scrum or two.   The media will have a field day over such moments, of course. 

At the same time, I predict NDP Leader Tom Mulcair will largely unimpress outside of Quebec.  When most Canadians get to know Mulcair better, they'll find him to be what I've always thought of him: generally unlikeable, even occasionally irritating.   He's certainly no Jack Layton.   We'll know Mulcair is merely trying to save the NDP furniture should his platform continue to tilt far left.  Then, he'll be able to credibly say to progressives: vote NDP to ensure you get the government you actually want, instead of a mushy centre-right-left government under Justin Trudeau.   Mulcair will get in his blows.  He'll be aided by conservative media commentators who will declare him victorious in the debates just to try to undermine Trudeau.  But ultimately, none of that noise will matter.

Harper's campaign will be impressive, but will for the first time take several major hits from his opponents.  His support will sag and the Conservatives will run neck-and-neck with the Grits in the polls throughout most of the campaign.  If Trudeau performs as well as he wants, the Grits will surge ahead.  The NDP will vacillate between the high teens and the low-20s and back to the teens again.  Quebec will consider abandoning the NDP to vote Liberal to beat the Tories once and for all.  

A lot of what may happen depends on how well Trudeau can perform, how clearly and succinctly he lays out a realistic and progressive agenda, and how well he dispels worries about his readiness to lead the country.  For Trudeau, there are many variables yet to be defined which make predictions extremely difficult.  I, like most fair-minded, progressive Canadians, believe Trudeau will eventually get there and lead a federal government that again makes us proud to be Canadian.  I'd love it to happen in 2015.   It's certainly possible.  

Will Trudeau perform when it matters most?  Or will he fall on his face and force Canadians again to choose Harper as the allegedly safer option?  My gut tells me we'll see something like what we saw when Trudeau took on then-Conservative Senator Patrick Brazeau in the boxing ring in 2012 (pictured above).  Greatly underestimated, Trudeau will fight a disciplined battle and surprise everyone, especially the Conservatives. 

The end result: I think we'll be seeing a Liberal victory in 2015 in Canada, probably a minority government.  If Quebec swings hard behind the Liberals to stop the Conservatives, it will be a majority.  In answer to the ballot question, "Do you want another four years of Harper?," the answer will be, "No."   The country has had enough of the Harper show.  We're tired of him.   Efforts to soften his image and promise something slightly different will prove unconvincing.  After an inspiring campaign that hits all the right notes and, to the shock of the "commentariat," makes few mistakes, Canadians will give the younger Trudeau a chance to chart a path that actually reflects the realistic and progressive values of the majority of Canadians, not the conservative minority for whom Harper governs. 

That's what my gut is telling me.  I could be wrong.  We shall see. 

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Stephen Harper's taxpayer-funded campaign of lies against marijuana backfiring...

Stephen Harper is being taken to task a lot lately for spending $600 million of taxpayers' hard-earned dollars on 'Government of Canada' advertising that does little more than promote his own partisan interests.

The latest and most blatant example, chock full of lies, paranoia and doubtful science, is the offensive anti-marijuana ad campaign from "Health Canada" released this fall.  You'll recall how many health care professionals refused to participate in it or lend it credence, rightfully aware the campaign was little more than a political attack on Harper's main opponent, Justin Trudeau.  I won't post a link to the YouTube ad as I don't want to give it more traffic or insult your intelligence further.   

But John Doyle sums it up nicely: 

"Marijuana Use, in which over deeply ominous music, it was announced, “Did you know that marijuana is on average 300 to 400 per cent stronger than it was 30 years ago? And that smoking marijuana can seriously harm a teen’s developing brain?” Actually the science is limited and, actually, the commercial is political, not medical. Irritating to think we are taken as fools."

Exactly.  The Harper government conducts no scientific research on marijuana.  Certainly, it hasn't been monitoring strength levels of street marijuana for 30 years.  So the claim is about pot being 400% stronger today than 30 years ago is unquantifiable.

The ad also remarks how marijuana use lowers IQ, as it plays a solemn chord from the Canadian national anthem, a staple from all federal government ads.

Andrew Woodbury describes it eloquently: 

"But there’s a problem: the public service announcement doesn’t stem from any type of health concern whatsoever; instead, it’s an arrogant, offensive election grenade. And the Canadian public sees right through the insult.

"Not only is the ad misinformation — the video fails to name a single source — it’s a not-so-subtle attack on the leader of the opposition, Justin Trudeau. And with that, the ad is revealed for what it really is: a political ploy."

Using tax dollars to attack an opposition leader: truly sleazy and exactly right up Harper's alley.

"The spot was chosen after that message (warning parents about pot hurting teen IQs) got the strongest reaction from focus groups of parents who were privately shown a similar ad and several alternatives in cities across Canada in June. 

"The parents, described by the interviewers as "generally uninformed regarding marijuana health risks," reacted with alarm when told marijuana can trigger psychosis, schizophrenia and a drop in IQ in young, still-developing brains. 

"The information on the harmful effects of cannabis on mental functioning was "surprising and scary" to them, says a newly released report by Harris Decima, commissioned by Health Canada at a cost of $95,000."

These messages may scare the Tory base, the only voters Harper has ever truly cared about.  But I think that Harper's instincts are getting dull.  His garden of potential voters is shrinking.  His show is getting very old and more and more Canadians are open to an alternative. 

Stephen Harper did some media interviews last week and didn't inspire much confidence that another four years of him would provide much improvement.   It'll be the same old Harper going forward: all of Canada's economic eggs in the oil basket, evidence and reason thrown out the window in favour of ideology, ham-fisted ideas without any basis in evidence or fact implemented into law, and taxpayer dollars used to promote Tory propaganda.

Meanwhile, we've learned that many Canadian soldiers now consider marijuana their drug of choice.

And more and more, mainstream Canadians seem to be coming over to the pro-legalization arguments.  Marijuana is not the boogeyman Harper hopes we still think it is. 

And the fearmongering is unjustified when looking at the experiences of other countries or regions which have liberalized their marijuana laws.

One study in the U.S. shows that teen use of marijuana is actually going down at a time when more states are moving toward legalization and regulation of the substance.  There goes one of the main planks in Tory fear and paranoia against liberalization of our pot laws. 

The experience in Uruguay has also been positive.  

"In a country that is a major exporter (and consumer) of beef, perhaps the metaphor is only a bit corny that Uruguay has taken the bull by the horns in the battle against cannabis. It has accepted the inevitable – that cannabis will be and is being widely used – and is trying to regulate its production and use to reduce consumption and crime." 

It would appear that, yet again, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is more in touch with the views of Canadians than our ham-fisted, intellectually rotting prime minister.   This is but one issue where Harper is clearly now more than ever offside with a big majority of this country.   And that divide is getting wider just in time for the 2015 election.

Stay tuned for a new post very soon about my predictions for the 2015 election. 

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Let's dissect Andrew Coyne's little lies and bad arguments...


Columnists are not reporters.  Facts are less important to them than spouting off on their biases.  They're not supposed to outright lie in their commentaries.  They can omit important facts that may destabilize their arguments.  But to misrepresent the facts openly should be a no-no.  

I can handle listening or watching commentators spout opinions I don't necessarily agree with as long as they're well-articulated, thoughtful and don't include little lies.   Andrew Coyne's usually are. 

But these little lies need to be exposed.

Andrew Coyne, who is one of the four Caucasian regular participants on the weekly At-Issue panel on CBC's National (and, don't forget, one of 3 straight guys too,) has long argued there is ZERO support amongst Canadians for any meaningful action on climate change.   This is baseless, of course.  Public opinion about the need to take meaningful action to save the planet is building strength in Canada.  If you look at growing protests across the country as an indication, any reporter being honest would have to admit this is true.   More and more people are questioning the status quo including the dubious environmental review process governed by Stephen Harper.  This was made clear in a recent column by Chantal Hebert, Coyne's At-Issue colleague.

As most policy analysts agree, a carbon tax remains the smartest way to begin to address the inherent problems in our dirty oil-loving economy.  But Coyne regularly provides cover to Harper government talking points that a carbon tax is nothing but "job killing."  Coyne and the Harperites, of course, ignore the fact that carbon taxes have been good for the economy.  They reward companies that make environmentally-wise decisions and punish polluters.
 
Coyne's latest column in today's Post (which inspired this post) also goes to bat for Stephen Harper, defending our petulant Prime Minister's refusal to meet with the duly elected premier of Ontario because they have some disagreements on policy.   Any way you slice it, Harper is again behaving like a pathetic little boy in his refusal to meet with the Ontario Premier.  He doesn't want to give Kathleen Wynne a chance to describe his facial expressions in future, I guess.  Harper doesn't want to have to listen to another point of view that challenges his rigid view of the role of the federal government.   Harper's stubbornness speaks to how badly he's poisoned Canadian political life and why he needs to go as soon as possible. 

Yet Coyne tries to argue that Harper's justified because Wynne has said some critical things about Harper's policies and disagrees with him philosophically on some important matters.   Coyne gives short shrift to the Ring of Fire and the urgent need to invest in Ontario's infrastructure, but then focuses on Wynne's support for an enhanced Canada Pension Plan.  

And in so doing, Coyne inserts a couple little lies (see the bolded words below):

"The premier had demanded the prime minister sign on to her pet project of an expanded Canada Pension Plan, a proposal that would force a great many people of modest means who already have satisfactory pension arrangements to put aside money they can ill do without, in order to fix a problem affecting a small number of under-savers, mostly upper income — or, as in the case of her proposed provincial variant, to finance her as-yet-unfunded public works plans."

Oops.  Wynne's proposed pension plan would not apply to "people of modest means who already have satisfactory pension arrangements."  It specifically would only apply to workers who have no workplace pension arrangements.  Unless, of course, Coyne considers the existing maximum CPP payout of $12,000 a year a "satisfactory pension arrangement?"   Surely, he couldn't be arguing that living in extreme poverty in retirement would be "satisfactory."   Please tell me conservatives like Coyne don't believe that!

The fact is, except for those lucky enough to have sustainable pension plans through the public service or the rare private employer who doesn't go under during their employees' retirement, most Canadians have to rely on unreliable RRSPs for their retirement savings.   In 2008, we saw how reliable those arrangements are when criminals on Wall Street gambled them away for massive personal profits and an entire generation of "people of modest means" saw their hard-earned savings disappear into thin air.  It's this experience which is fueling the need to enhance satisfactory pension arrangements like the CPP, Mr. Coyne.  We've lost confidence in the private sector's ability to protect secure retirement plans.  An enhanced CPP would help people of modest means the most. 

As for Coyne's assertion that Wynne's pension plan proposal would "finance her as-yet-unfunded public works plans," I'm baffled.  It would seem he stuck in that line to further feed the conservative falsehood that an expanded CPP would somehow divert funds away from personal pensions and into other government expenditures like transit.  That's a complete lie and Coyne should be forced to recant that one. 

Coyne has also peddled other conservative BS like one-income families that make $120,000 a year are equal to two-income families that also make a combined $120,000 a year and therefore should be taxed the same thanks to Harper's income-splitting giveaway.   Of course, Coyne and others conveniently forget that one-income families have one major advantage over two-income families: if things get tough, the second non-working spouse can go out and earn a second income, thus inflating that $120,000 a year income up substantially higher.  The two-income earning family of course can't send out a third spouse to earn extra income.   It would be nice if Coyne admits this reality the next time he argues that Harper's income splitting proposal is somehow an "issue of fairness."

I usually have a lot of respect for Andrew Coyne's well-written or spoken commentaries.  But he's failing recently on the issues illustrated above.  I hope he does better in the future. 

Friday, December 5, 2014

Harper continues to snub Wynne; I guess he thinks he has too many lesbians in his life?

Stephen Harper is proving he can be as classless as the worst of men.  

I'm tired of his petty arrogance being described as "competence" and "good judgment" by his supporters and apologists.

The man was never much of a leader and simply lucky, taking advantage of opportunities handed to him on a silver platter.  He came along at the right time when voters wanted change in Ottawa, and then benefited from two bad Liberal leadership choices.   But thankfully, Harper's luck is now up facing off next year against Justin Trudeau.

The Prime Minister of Canada should communicate regularly with the duly elected Premier of Ontario, especially one who just won an historic majority mandate.  But he continues to refuse to do so.  Apparently he can't get over how Wynne described his facial expression during a face-to-face meeting one year ago on the issue of an enhanced pension plan for the middle class.   And instead he now shrugs off the suggestion he meet with her again, signalling petty insults about Ontario's finances.  This is especially galling because his government, having cut over $1 billion in return transfer payments to Ontario this year, and exclusively backing Alberta's polluting oil sands industry with federal fiscal policy since 2006, leaving Ontario's economy high and dry, has made matters worse for Ontario.  Wynne doesn't support Harper's austerity agenda, which would push Ontario's anemic economy back into recession; instead she wants to invest in Ontario's infrastructure to push the economy forward for decades, but Harper refuses to help.

But being outwardly polite and kind to homosexuals has never been Harper's imperative as we know.   As Robert Benzies makes clear in this article, Harper has met with Vladimir Putin, the notorious homophobe, more times in the last year than he has with Kathleen Wynne. 

Wynne has responded like an adult:

“Those of us who get into politics have to be able, I believe, to focus on the issues that are important to our constituents and not get caught in . . . personal animosity,” the premier told reporters. 

“I really don’t think it’s helpful.  

“For me, Stephen Harper is the prime minister of Canada and I think that it is only rational that the prime minister of Canada would want to talk with the premier of Ontario.

“There’s an active conversation right now about General Motors in Oshawa. We worked well with the federal government in the auto sector. I’d like to have that conversation with the prime minister and how are we going to tackle our relationship with the auto sector going forward,” she said.

“Ontario is a huge net contributor to the federation — it’s very important to the country that Ontario do well.”

Kathleen Wynne and Ontario deserve more respect.


Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Poland makes history by electing its first openly gay mayor, Robert Biedron

Poland makes history by electing its first openly gay mayor

Wonderful news!

Gay rights campaigner Robert Biedron has pledged to ditch the limos and ride a bike
Robert Biedron is Poland's first gay mayor.

Poland has made history by electing the country's first openly gay mayor.



Voters in the Eastern European country, which is 90% Roman Catholic,
showed their support behind LGBTI campaigner Robert Biedron.



The 38-year-old, a member of maverick MP Janusz Palikot’s ultra-liberal
‘Your Movement’, won the mayoral elections in Slupsk, northern Poland,
today (1 December).



He secured 57% of the vote, beating the ruling Civic Playform candidate Zbigniew Zonwinski.



'I will lead a very modest [local government], as this town is modest,
as well as being one of the most debt-ridden in Poland,' Biedron told
PAP news agency.



'The three limousines which are available to the mayor will no longer be mine, as I go everywhere by bicycle.'



Biedron is perhaps best known for when he ran as a MP and won the
Gdynia-Slupsk constituency. He also set up the charity Campaign Against
Homophobia.



The elections saw a small wave of liberalism fighting to be heard, with
the elections for regional parliaments and municipal government seeing a
record number of openly gay candidates in the race.



With none of the others won seats, Biedron's success is being hailed as an inspiration.
- See more at:
http://www.gaystarnews.com/article/poland-makes-history-electing-its-first-openly-gay-mayor011214#sthash.i81OxIjZ.dpuf
"Poland has made history by electing the country's first openly gay mayor.

"Voters in the Eastern European country, which is 90% Roman Catholic, showed their support behind LGBTI campaigner Robert Biedron.

"The 38-year-old, a member of maverick MP Janusz Palikot’s ultra-liberal ‘Your Movement’, won the mayoral elections in Slupsk, northern Poland, today (1 December).

"He secured 57% of the vote, beating the ruling Civic Playform candidate Zbigniew Zonwinski.

"'I will lead a very modest [local government], as this town is modest, as well as being one of the most debt-ridden in Poland,' Biedron told PAP news agency.

"'The three limousines which are available to the mayor will no longer be mine, as I go everywhere by bicycle.'

"Biedron is perhaps best known for when he ran as a MP and won the Gdynia-Slupsk constituency. He also set up the charity Campaign Against Homophobia.

"The elections saw a small wave of liberalism fighting to be heard, with the elections for regional parliaments and municipal government seeing a record number of openly gay candidates in the race.

"With none of the others won seats, Biedron's success is being hailed as an inspiration."

Gay rights campaigner Robert Biedron has pledged to ditch the limos and ride a bike
Robert Biedron is Poland's first gay mayor.

Poland has made history by electing the country's first openly gay mayor.



Voters in the Eastern European country, which is 90% Roman Catholic,
showed their support behind LGBTI campaigner Robert Biedron.



The 38-year-old, a member of maverick MP Janusz Palikot’s ultra-liberal
‘Your Movement’, won the mayoral elections in Slupsk, northern Poland,
today (1 December).



He secured 57% of the vote, beating the ruling Civic Playform candidate Zbigniew Zonwinski.



'I will lead a very modest [local government], as this town is modest,
as well as being one of the most debt-ridden in Poland,' Biedron told
PAP news agency.



'The three limousines which are available to the mayor will no longer be mine, as I go everywhere by bicycle.'



Biedron is perhaps best known for when he ran as a MP and won the
Gdynia-Slupsk constituency. He also set up the charity Campaign Against
Homophobia.



The elections saw a small wave of liberalism fighting to be heard, with
the elections for regional parliaments and municipal government seeing a
record number of openly gay candidates in the race.



With none of the others won seats, Biedron's success is being hailed as an inspiration.
- See more at:
http://www.gaystarnews.com/article/poland-makes-history-electing-its-first-openly-gay-mayor011214#sthash.i81OxIjZ.dpuf