Justin Trudeau now sits ready to form a new cabinet after calling what turned out to be one of the most unnecessary elections I can remember. On September 20th, he barely got more seats than he won in 2019, as unimpressed Canadians stuck with the devil they know. The message from Canadians was clear: cut out the political nonsense and get to work governing!
Since Covid started, governments that have dared to call elections in Canada have mostly been rewarded with majority power. That trend ended in Nova Scotia in mid-August when the provincial Liberals were turfed from office, a few days after Trudeau called the federal election. I was scared at first that the NS result portended a similar comeuppance for the federal Liberals for their similar arrogance calling a vote in the middle of a pandemic. And for a couple of weeks, it seemed Canadians too were considering knocking Trudeau out of power.
Conservative leader Erin O'Toole, who had several terrible months before the election call, first seemed dead on arrival when the vote was called. But suddenly, he performed. He made lots of noise about being a reasonable, centrist, even somewhat progressive Conservative leader. His policies seemed moderate and sensical. He also seemed likeable and decent, like a friendly uncle. Canadians sick to death of Trudeau suddenly felt they had a decent alternative.
But then Trudeau managed to plant enough seeds of doubt about O'Toole's alleged moderation. It wasn't difficult.
O'Toole's mishandling of his gun control policy, which changed by the day, horrified both sides of the debate.
O'Toole's pledge to take serious action against climate change - even promising a pale pink imitation of Justin Trudeau's carbon levy - was undermined by his own party's convention earlier this year where 54% of delegates voted against a motion that declared that "climate change is real."
The mistrust built up over the years thanks to Stephen Harper's style and government hadn't yet receded. O'Toole was trying to put lipstick on a pig and it didn't work.
I have no doubt that O'Toole genuinely is a moderate. His main problem as leader is due to the fact that he veered so far to the right to win that leadership in 2020. After claiming he would "take Canada back!" (from whom?), and throwing lots of red meat at the party's true blue, social conservative base, O'Toole bested Peter Mackay for the win. In his leadership victory speech, O'Toole then claimed to be a moderate who would reach out to working families, even LGBTQ Canadians. Social conservatives must've felt used. They were.
It's very difficult to be both a true blue Conservative, as well as a centrist moderate progressive Conservative at the same time. O'Toole didn't quite hit the right notes to seem credible. Even Stephen Harper was far more masterful at sounding reasonable and consistent. O'Toole's message seemed more confusing. Next to the clarity of Trudeau's message and brand, he paled.
It may be that O'Toole will eventually find a credible, clear message and brand that can carry him over the top. He probably deserves at least one more shot as Conservative leader in an election.
While I don't exactly respect O'Toole's cynical hard right strategy to win his party's leadership - flirting with some awful people to win power - I will admit that O'Toole is likely the sort of reasonable conservative I'd be comfortable seeing in power, if we had to have a Conservative government. I'd rather have O'Toole as Conservative leader than the odious Pierre Poilievre, for example.
It's hilarious that some right-wing and social conservatives are wrongly blaming O'Toole's veering to the center as the cause for their party's failure last month. In truth, it was O'Toole's attempts to placate the party's more conservative wing with positions on vaccination mandates, gun control and abortion that undermined its momentum when it mattered in early September.
The NDP's Jagmeet Singh entered the election with some wind at his back, enjoying support levels above 20% on average, which had it held on election day would've been one of the federal NDP's best performances. The NDP held that support as well for most of the campaign.
I had my doubts that much NDP support would materialize on election day. And by and large, it didn't. Sure, many progressives flirted with the idea of voting NDP. But the NDP option never quite felt serious. Singh's candidates were, for the most part, the same sort of caliber the NDP always puts up. It was hard to see this team forming a cabinet. Plus, the NDP platform was even more pie in the sky than usual, certainly not a real, well-charted, overly specific plan for the future of the country. It was not surprising to me to see the NDP fall back to 18% on election day and end up with almost the same number of seats as last time. Their results in Ontario were particularly mediocre, even losing one of their six seats and making zero gains.
Yes, Trudeau's strong performance during the pandemic, largely meeting the needs of an economy in crisis and taking strong stands in favour of public health and vaccine mandates, reassured Canadians.
Love him or hate him, Trudeau is an effective politician with a clear brand. Canadians are more than aware of his flaws, and have decided again to tolerate them until a better leader and team comes along. That wasn't O'Toole this time.
I have not been overly impressed with Trudeau as a leader. He says the right things. He often accurately and sometimes passionately reflects the progressive sentiments of the country. But he's painfully shallow and frequently blind to his own ethical short-sightedness. On so many issues that matter to progressives, his efforts in government have proven unsatisfying.
Yet Trudeau and the Liberals remain the only credible progressive governing option at the federal level. The NDP has a long way to go in terms of building support in every region of the country to adequately challenge them. The Greens are again non-starters. So it's true - under our first-past-the-post electoral system - progressives or centrists will continue to gravitate toward Liberals, especially in Ontario.
Regardless of those systemic strengths for the Liberal Party, the fairly mediocre result last month - 32.6% support and another minority government with almost the same number of seats - should raise alarm bells. Leaders and governments that hang around too long inevitably get long in the tooth and sloppy. Heck, this government has been sloppy on many files since its first term. Eventually, voters just get enough of you. That time may come for Trudeau in a couple years. It might be better for him instead to take a walk in the snow a couple years from now and retire before the next election. But we'll see. He's certainly bought himself another 2-4 years in power.
The saddest story in this election is probably what happened to the Green Party's Annamie Paul.
This Star article lays bare the various conflicts between Paul and party officials since she made history winning the party's leadership in 2020.
I related greatly to Paul during this campaign as she seemed to be a decent person with great experience and the right positions on the issues of our time. She was undermined, however, by party brass unwilling to play seriously in the big leagues, and more interested in protecting their own tiny turf rather than work with Paul. Why do so many progressive or union activists play so nasty and fight to the death over crumbs?
I was shocked the party gave Paul such a hard time. I will also agree that Paul herself seemed quite ineffectual managing these conflicts. Could she not meet with these folks and establish a truce, for the sake of the environment? Apparently not. Officials, including the tiny Green caucus, claimed Paul made few overtures to establish decent relations with them in the months after she won a narrow victory to become leader. Paul also erred greatly by not clearly disassociating herself from her former advisor Noah Zatzman after his outrageous attack threatening elected Green MPs earlier this year. Her answers to these questions always seemed too lawyerly and tone deaf.
In the end, her ability to handle crises seemed weak. The chaos that happens under your watch is your responsibility as leader. Canadians wanted to hear Paul take accountability for what was going on in her party, but she never did. She instead made excuses, pointed blame at nameless officials and complained about racism and sexism. It impressed few. I found it hard to believe the Green Party was a cesspool of anti-semitism, sexism and racism. I found it more credible to believe that Paul simply didn't have or had yet to develop the people skills to manage the leadership she had chosen to take on.
Her support collapsed in her Toronto Centre riding from 33% in the 2020 byelection to just 9% in the general election one year later. The public have pronounced a big thumbs down on a Green Party more consumed with petty bickering than promoting a coherent and progressive plan for the future. Now the party's very future is in doubt.
That'll be good news for the Liberals and the NDP, and perhaps even the Conservatives in some parts.
I feel sorry for Paul. Her failure reminds me of the nasty, brutal ways of politics and how it can devour well-meaning people, even in the minor leagues of the Green Party.