Sunday, July 14, 2024

Donald Trump suffers assassination attempt after 9 years of promoting violence and vicious disrespect against his own political opponents including inciting the Jan 6th insurrection

Yesterday, a horrifying and terrible incident happened in Butler, Pennsylvania where a gunman shot bullets at Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during an outdoor political rally, grazing Trump's ear, critically injuring two other spectators, and killing another innocent spectator.  Secret service on the scene within seconds shot dead the shooter, who was apparently present on the rooftop of a nearby building.   

Reports indicate the shooter was a 20-year-old white man named Thomas Matthew Crooks, who was reportedly also registered as a Republican.  His motives for this crime remain unclear.  

I have long detested Donald Trump including for everything he has put the world through due to his deep personality flaws and noxious political ideology.  He has promoted a culture of political violence and vicious disrespect of anyone who dares to oppose him or his MAGA movement.  He has empowered violent, intolerant people the world over, inspiring our current era of polarization and hateful misinformation.

Trump's irresponsibility reached its horrifying height on January 6, 2021 when Trump's supporters, incited by Trump's lies about the 2020 election, violently attacked the U.S. Capitol, on the hunt to murder Mike Pence, Nancy Pelosi and anyone else who wouldn't help Trump steal the 2020 election from American voters.  

Republicans and former Trump supporters who turned on him in recent years, warning Americans about how he must never again get close to the White House, have been living in fear, forced to hire their own security to protect themselves from Trump's violent mob. 

When Nancy Pelosi's husband was viciously attacked in 2022 by a home intruder with a hammer, Trump made jokes about it and even a year later took the opportunity to call her a "Wicked Witch".  Trump's creepy son made light of the attack with a post on social media.   

 

 

Despite this heartless, immature behaviour from Trump and his offspring, Pelosi showed herself to be the better person yesterday when she condemned the violence Trump and his rally supporters faced:


For Trump and his supporters to now criticize any political speech as inappropriate in light of their years of misbehaviour, inflammatory and violent rhetoric, and vicious disrespect is beyond the pale. 

I do sympathize with any victims of violence and trauma.  I wouldn't wish violence on anyone, including Donald Trump and his supporters, despite their viciousness all these years.  

I am sophisticated enough to understand that the reasons people support political candidates can be nuanced and complicated.  Regardless of their reasons for being at the rally yesterday, no one deserved to suffer what happened yesterday.  

My heart goes out to the family of the unlucky man who reportedly jumped to protect his family when shots were fired and died because of it.   My heart goes out to the badly injured as well. 

Will this near-death experience cause a change in Trump?  I would hope so.  But I won't be holding my breath.  He has never shown anything except complete narcissism and total selfishness. 

Sadly, I suspect that Trump will try to use this incident to stir up and inflame the American political discourse even worse than he already has, all to his own personal benefit, as he has always done. 

I hope not.  The next few weeks will be scary to behold. 

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

Major "13 Keys" predictor for U.S. Presidential elections shows both Joe Biden or Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump

UPDATED AUG 28, 2024

Renowned U.S. historian Allan Lichtman's famous "13 Keys" predictor of U.S. presidential elections has correctly predicted the outcomes in every U.S. election since the 1980s (with one exception in 2000 when the election was stolen by the U.S. Supreme Court from the rightful winner, Al Gore, who the "13 Keys" predicted would be victorious.)

Lichtman's "13 Keys" method predicted Trump would win in 2016.  It also predicted Biden would beat Trump in 2020.   

So this year, with all the uncertainty about Biden's age and fitness for office, what are the "13 Keys" saying?  Lichtman has gone out of his way this past week to argue that Joe Biden's halting and alarming performance in last Thursday's debate will have "zero" impact on the final result of the U.S. election.   

Other key factors will determine the outcome, not debate performances, he says, reminding many thought Ronald Reagan was too old to be re-elected in 1984, but went on to win 49 out of 50 states that year.  

So what are those key factors that determine election outcomes?   

I've taken the 13 Keys and done my own assessment for both Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, and also Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump.  Please feel free to comment below on if you think I'm fair and accurate with my analysis: 

13 Keys: Biden vs Trump / Harris vs Trump

  1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.  
    • Biden vs Trump 1 / Harris vs Trump 1 (Republicans narrowly won House of Reps in 2022, the Dems lost seats from 2020 and 2018, so Trump gets this point)
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 
    • Biden 1 vs Trump 1 / Harris 1 vs Trump 1 (Biden won his nomination with no serious competition this year, and if the Democrats acclaim Harris as only viable alternative to Biden, she gets point, if there's a fight, this point goes to Trump. I am assuming the party would rally around Harris as candidate, giving this point to Harris)
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 
    • Biden 2 vs Trump 1 / Harris 1 vs Trump 2 (unless Biden resigns and Harris is sworn in as President, but that's unlikely to happen, but who knows, if it does Harris gets this point, not Trump) 
  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 
    • Biden 3 vs Trump 1 / Harris 2 vs Trump 2 (RFK Jr dropped out in late August and I wouldn't say Stein & West are significant candidates, so point to Harris.)
  5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. 
    • Biden 4 vs Trump 1 / Harris 3 vs Trump 2 (Economy seems to be doing well this year, so points for Biden & Harris)
  6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 
    • Biden 6 vs Trump 1 / Harris 5 vs Trump 2 (Major national infrastructure policies / major policy gains on social & health policy / climate change initiatives so points to Biden & Harris)
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. 
    • Biden 7 vs Trump 1 / Harris 6 vs Trump 2 (Sure some minor unrest on Gaza but doesn't seem sustained, but mostly peaceful during 4 years, so points to Biden & Harris)
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 
    • Biden 8 vs Trump 1 / Harris 7 vs Trump 2 (No major scandals to speak of, so points to Biden & Harris)
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 
    • Biden 8 vs Trump 2 / Harris 7 vs Trump 3 (Afghanistan big failure, Ukraine not yet failed but not winning, Israel-Gaza not a success for sure, so point to Trump.)
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 
    • Biden 8 vs Trump 3 / Harris 7 vs Trump 4 (Ukraine not a success yet, Israel-Gaza not a success for sure, so point to Trump.)
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 
    • Biden 8 vs Trump 4 / Harris 7 vs Trump 5 (Biden was not seen as charismatic or hero, and while Harris is definitely charismatic and charming many, she is not seen as a once-in-a-lifetime charismatic figure on par yet with Obama or Reagan, so point to Trump.)
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 
    • Biden 9 vs Trump 4 / Harris 8 vs Trump 5 (Trump not seen as charismatic or hero, so points to Biden & Harris.).

The updated (August) results are Biden wins over Trump 9 to 4 and wins the election.

The results also show that as long as Harris is acclaimed as the Democratic candidate to replace Biden at the top of the ticket, she takes it 8 to 5 over Trump.  

It's possible that Key #6 (Long Term Economy) might not break in favour of Biden & Harris if the Democrats can't get their honest message out about robust economic growth since 2020 exceeding the disaster of the Trump Covid period, nor the somewhat stagnant growth 2012-2016.  But I'm betting the Democrats will pour their money into making sure Americans understand the long-term economy has been doing well under them, despite the Republican narrative.  

My decision to give the foreign policy points both to Trump is perhaps a good counter to my giving the economic points to Biden & Harris.  It's possible Ukraine could be seen as more promising before November, or perhaps a ceasefire will be negotiated in Israel-Gaza (although it remains doubtful that conflict could ever be seen as a Biden success.)  So I'm confident awarding these 2 points to Trump remains fair.  

Nevertheless, it seems that Trump is headed for defeat against both Biden or Harris.  Any other Democratic presidential candidate besides Harris would undoubtedly emerge after some kind of contentious race, denying crucial Key #2 from that candidate, thus risking their chances to stop Trump in November. 

My new main point: both Biden and Harris have excellent and equal chances of stopping Trump.