UPDATED AUG 28, 2024
Renowned U.S. historian Allan Lichtman's famous "13 Keys" predictor of U.S. presidential elections has correctly predicted the outcomes in every U.S. election since the 1980s (with one exception in 2000 when the election was stolen by the U.S. Supreme Court from the rightful winner, Al Gore, who the "13 Keys" predicted would be victorious.)
Lichtman's "13 Keys" method predicted Trump would win in 2016. It also predicted Biden would beat Trump in 2020.
So this year, with all the uncertainty about Biden's age and fitness for office, what are the "13 Keys" saying? Lichtman has gone out of his way this past week to argue that Joe Biden's halting and alarming performance in last Thursday's debate will have "zero" impact on the final result of the U.S. election.
Other key factors will determine the outcome, not debate performances, he says, reminding many thought Ronald Reagan was too old to be re-elected in 1984, but went on to win 49 out of 50 states that year.
So what are those key factors that determine election outcomes?
I've taken the 13 Keys and done my own assessment for both Joe Biden versus Donald Trump, and also Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump. Please feel free to comment below on if you think I'm fair and accurate with my analysis:
13 Keys: Biden vs Trump / Harris vs Trump
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Biden vs Trump 1 / Harris vs Trump 1 (Republicans narrowly won House of Reps in 2022, the Dems lost seats from 2020 and 2018, so Trump gets this point)
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Biden 1 vs Trump 1 / Harris 1 vs Trump 1 (Biden won his nomination with no serious competition this year, and if the Democrats acclaim Harris as only viable alternative to Biden, she gets point, if there's a fight, this point goes to Trump. I am assuming the party would rally around Harris as candidate, giving this point to Harris)
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Biden 2 vs Trump 1 / Harris 1 vs Trump 2 (unless Biden resigns and Harris is sworn in as President, but that's unlikely to happen, but who knows, if it does Harris gets this point, not Trump)
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Biden 3 vs Trump 1 / Harris 2 vs Trump 2 (RFK Jr dropped out in late August and I wouldn't say Stein & West are significant candidates, so point to Harris.)
- Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Biden 4 vs Trump 1 / Harris 3 vs Trump 2 (Economy seems to be doing well this year, so points for Biden & Harris)
- Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Biden 5 vs Trump 1 / Harris 4 vs Trump 2 (Economy has exceeded growth this term over last 2 terms considering COVID, slow growth in 2010s, etc. so points to Biden & Harris)
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Biden 6 vs Trump 1 / Harris 5 vs Trump 2 (Major national infrastructure policies / major policy gains on social & health policy / climate change initiatives so points to Biden & Harris)
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Biden 7 vs Trump 1 / Harris 6 vs Trump 2 (Sure some minor unrest on Gaza but doesn't seem sustained, but mostly peaceful during 4 years, so points to Biden & Harris)
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Biden 8 vs Trump 1 / Harris 7 vs Trump 2 (No major scandals to speak of, so points to Biden & Harris)
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Biden 8 vs Trump 2 / Harris 7 vs Trump 3 (Afghanistan big failure, Ukraine not yet failed but not winning, Israel-Gaza not a success for sure, so point to Trump.)
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Biden 8 vs Trump 3 / Harris 7 vs Trump 4 (Ukraine not a success yet, Israel-Gaza not a success for sure, so point to Trump.)
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Biden 8 vs Trump 4 / Harris 8 vs Trump 4 (Biden was not seen as charismatic or hero, but Harris is definitely winning in the charisma category, her campaign for president has quickly morphed into an inspiring movement like Obama's did in 2008, so point to Harris.)
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
- Biden 9 vs Trump 4 / Harris 9 vs Trump 4 (Trump not seen as charismatic or hero, so points to Biden & Harris.).
The updated (August) results are Biden wins over Trump 9 to 4 and wins the election.
The results also show that as long as Harris is acclaimed as the Democratic candidate to replace Biden at the top of the ticket, she too will win 9 to 4 over Trump.
It's possible that Key #6 (Long Term Economy) might not break in favour of Biden & Harris if the Democrats can't get their honest message out about robust economic growth since 2020 exceeding the disaster of the Trump Covid period, nor the somewhat stagnant growth 2012-2016. But I'm betting the Democrats will pour their money into making sure Americans understand the long-term economy has been doing well under them, despite the Republican narrative.
My decision to give the foreign policy points both to Trump is perhaps a good counter to my giving the economic points to Biden & Harris. It's possible Ukraine could be seen as more promising before November, or perhaps a ceasefire will be negotiated in Israel-Gaza (although it remains doubtful that conflict could ever be seen as a Biden success.) So I'm confident awarding these 2 points to Trump remains fair.
Nevertheless, it seems that Trump is headed for defeat against both Biden or Harris. Any other Democratic presidential candidate besides Harris would undoubtedly emerge after some kind of contentious race, denying crucial Key #2 from that candidate, thus risking their chances to stop Trump in November.
My new main point: both Biden and Harris have excellent and equal chances of stopping Trump.
1 comment:
"with one exception in 2000 when the election was stolen by the U.S. Supreme Court from the rightful winner,"
Aye, there's the rub.
Post a Comment