Friday, June 6, 2014

Hudak uptick this week will be good news for the Wynne Liberals on election day next week...

After a rough month on the campaign trail, this past week was rather good for Tim Hudak.  He was generally viewed as winning the leaders' debate on Tuesday (although I still found him as phoney and overly-scripted as he's ever been.)

And last night, the story broke about how the OPP want to see guest logs at the Legislative Assembly as part of their ongoing investigation into the gas plants scandal.  The OPP has also confirmed that former premier Dalton McGuinty is not under investigation and he has been cooperating with them fully.  After this week's debate in which the gas plants issue played heavily, it's difficult to see how this new development at the end of the week is really going to add significantly to Grit woes.  Sure it's not fun for Grits to experience this so late in a campaign, but is there anything really revelatory here?  Not overly.

Granted, Hudak now seems to have a bit of wind in his sails and today's EKOS tracking poll confirms it showing him now polling slightly ahead of the Liberals,  The NDP is still way back at just over 20% support (three points below their 2011 vote percentage.)   I'm sure other polls will confirm a tightened race between the Liberals and PCs as a result of this week's developments.   And of course, Tory pollster Ipsos Reid will no doubt release another bogus poll soon showing that Hudak's Tories are on track to win a massive majority with the NDP coming in second place along with the Liberals losing party status (when they just factor in their bizarre "motivated voter" formula.)   That Ipsos poll will be bullshit, but the rest will be mostly accurate.


I stand corrected about the next Ipsos Reid poll, which puts the Libs and Tories tied at 35%, with the NDP showing strength at 26%.  I'm not sure I believe these numbers entirely.  But they're not as completely nuts as the polls this outfit put out in May. 


It's just too bad for Hudak that the election isn't this week.  As they say, a week is an eternity in politics. This Tory uptick will only spook progressives even further.  Today's gas plant non-developments will only stoke those fears.  Could Hudak really be about to win this election despite his crazy plan to eliminate 100,000 public service jobs and his idiotic math skills on display in his One Million Person-Years Plan?

I predict a bad couple of days for the Wynne campaign will start to become a string of good days for the Grits starting this weekend as they continue with their relentless message as reported in this Globe story:

“It’s becoming clearer that there’s really a stark choice between the two likely parties to form government,” [Kathleen Wynne] said just thirty seconds into her interview at the Globe. “What Tim Hudak is proposing is making a lot of people anxious… it’s much less in keeping with the way Ontario has grown, the way Ontario has functioned and is pretty reckless at this moment.”

...This tack is partly designed to peel away NDP supporters by presenting herself as the only person who can stop the PCs. It is also meant to fire up her base and make sure they come to the polls...

“In the last few days of an election that is going to be a close election -- there’s no doubt about that – I need to make it clear to people what’s at stake,” she told the Globe. “That is what we’re going to do.”

This is probably the ballot question the Liberals need to push in order to still win this election.  I said yesterday their narrative was unclear, but I take it back now.  It's quite clear and I think it's going to work.

Before this week, it looked like Hudak was a goner.  This week, he's back in the game.  Suddenly the importance of progressives coalescing around Wynne is more important than ever and every seat counts, including the five seats in the city of Toronto held by the NDP.   We should expect more of this kind of talk over the next few days.   This push to get behind Wynne will reach its peak on June 12th, mark my words!


John B. said...

Progressives need to coalesce not around any specific party leader, but riding-by-riding around the strongest non-PC local candidate. The Hudak must be stopped. It's probably the case, not only in Toronto but in the rest of the province, that in some or all of the NDP-held ridings, to keep the seat out of Hudak's hands it's a safer bet to back the NDP candidate. Electors should put some thought into their decisions. This is how many of us have voted both provincially and federally since, and in such cases where, our “conservative” parties were taken over by libertarians..

Matt Guerin said...

I might normally agree, John. But in this election, it seems Horwath doesn't really care if Hudak wins and implements his plan. She'd put him in office over Kathleen Wynne. So suddenly it's quite urgent for progressives to kick out the NDP and elect Liberals if they want to avoid a PC government. Even in a minority, the PCs could do incredible damage through cabinet decree.