Monday, March 17, 2008

Stephane Dion wins 3 out of 4 ridings, Greens make gains, NDP collapses...

Looking at the preliminary by-election results tonight, it's clear that this was a very good night for Stephane Dion's Liberals...

Before the Tories and the NDP try to paint this as bad news, let's look at the numbers...

Liberal vote up from 52% to 59%. Congrats to Bob Rae! The NDP collapses from 24% to 13%. Greens tie NDP for second place. Conservative vote drops from 18% to 12%, FOURTH PLACE in urban Toronto. Clearly the firing of Mark Warner and the appointment of Don Meredith undermined Tory fortunes more than badly: they were CRUSHED.

Liberal vote goes up from 55% to 59%. Congrats to Martha Hall Findlay! Tories are stagnant at 30%. Greens beat out NDP for third.

Greens up from 5% to 14%. This accounts for a good chunk of the decrease in Liberal support to 36%. But a win is a win. The vote shows if you want to beat Conservatives in most parts of B.C., you've got to vote Liberal. Congrats to Joyce Murray! The Tories go from 29% to 35%, the only urban area in Canada where they gained significantly, but not enough to win. The NDP goes nowhere and almost comes in fourth.

Looks like the protest against Joan Beatty's appointment worked its wonders. Congrats to David Orchard, well done! And congrats to Rob Clarke. But the NDP is still a distant third in the cradle of the CCF, the Liberals in a strong second.

So the Liberals strengthen their hold in the GTA. An appointed Liberal candidate does well, but loses in Saskatchewan. The Greens cut into Liberal support in the Vancouver by-election, but the Grits still win on the west coast.

The Liberal Party is the only party with significant support everywhere across the country. Stephen Harper's Conservatives were CRUSHED in urban Ontario.


ALW said...

You can read the tea leaves all you want Matt but you're kidding yourself if you think last night was good news for the Grits. They held two easy seats, very nearly had an Outremont repeat in Vancouver Quadra and Dion's appointee in Desnethe was crushed.

Maybe it's time to change your party's name to the Toronto Party of Canada?

Matt Guerin said...

Sure right after you rename your party the Rural Christian Party of Party.

The only mainstream party that was crushed (besides the NDP) last night was the Tories in Toronto Centre - 12% is pathetic! You guys used to hold that seat in the Mulroney years.

Last night was a draw - and the Liberals were the only party with good support across the country.

Oldschool said...

Matt . . . the folks that used to live in TO Centre 20 years ago have all moved to the burbs . . . the folks living there are all new arivals on the dole . . . typical libs I guess.
Hear Liz May on the radio the other day . . . the lady is just nuts . . . told the listeners that the world was coming to an end, the oceans were going to rise 30 feet . . . even the latest IPCC summary now talks about maybe 8 inches. This lady is over the deep end, out of touch with reality and unelectible.